Liga Portugal (Portugal) · Sat, Oct 24 · 17:00 · FC Alverca vs FC Arouca
Likeliest: FC Alverca win · 43%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 43% for the home win. The market says 44%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Alverca43%44%−1
OursMarket
Draw30%29%+2
OursMarket
FC Arouca26%27%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 49% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 54% | 53% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 73% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 56% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 71% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 62% | 62% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Alverca
LossWinWinWinDraw
- Oct 18 · at Tondela (A)0-0
- Oct 12 · at Famalicão (A)4-1
- Sep 19 · v Rio Ave (H)1-0
- Sep 12 · at CD Nacional (A)3-1
- Sep 5 · v Sporting Braga (H)1-2
FC Arouca
DrawLossDrawWinDraw
- Oct 18 · at C.F. Os Belenenses (A)3-3
- Oct 11 · v CF Estrela Amadora (H)1-0
- Sep 19 · at Sporting (A)2-2
- Sep 13 · v Santa Clara (H)1-2
- Sep 7 · at Estoril Praia (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | FC Alverca | FC Arouca |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-5-2 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.