Liga Portugal (Portugal) · Sat, Sep 19 · 17:00 · FC Alverca vs Rio Ave
Likeliest: FC Alverca win · 50%
A tight one: we make it 50% for the home win. The market says 50%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Alverca50%50%0
OursMarket
Draw28%27%+1
OursMarket
Rio Ave23%23%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 47% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 54% | 51% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 77% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 50% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 73% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 69% | 68% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Alverca
DrawLossDrawLossWin
- Sep 12 · at CD Nacional (A)3-1
- Sep 5 · v Sporting Braga (H)1-2
- Aug 29 · v Santa Clara (H)1-1
- Aug 22 · at Sporting (A)1-3
- Aug 15 · v CF Estrela Amadora (H)2-2
Rio Ave
LossWinLossLossDraw
- Sep 14 · v CF Estrela Amadora (H)3-3
- Sep 6 · at Santa Clara (A)0-4
- Aug 28 · v Sporting (H)0-4
- Aug 22 · at Estoril Praia (A)2-0
- Aug 15 · v FC Porto (H)0-2
| Last 10 games | FC Alverca | Rio Ave |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 1-3-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 2.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-6-2 | 4-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.