Liga Portugal (Portugal) · Sat, Sep 5 · 17:00 · FC Alverca vs Sporting Braga
Likeliest: Sporting Braga win · 50%
We make it 53% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 46%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Alverca27%21%+6
OursMarket
Draw23%26%−3
OursMarket
Sporting Braga50%53%−3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 46% | +7 |
| Both teams score | 54% | 50% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 50% | 47% | +3 |
| Double chance X2 | 73% | 79% | −6 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 74% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 35% | 28% | +7 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Alverca
LossLossDrawLossDraw
- Aug 29 · v Santa Clara (H)1-1
- Aug 22 · at Sporting (A)1-3
- Aug 15 · v CF Estrela Amadora (H)2-2
- Aug 9 · at FC Porto (A)0-2
- May 16 · at Famalicão (A)0-1
Sporting Braga
DrawDrawWinDrawWin
- Aug 31 · v Vitória SC (H)1-0
- Aug 27 · at Austria Wien (A)0-0
- Aug 20 · v Austria Wien (H)2-0
- Aug 13 · at Dinamo Minsk (A)0-0
- Aug 9 · at Moreirense (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | FC Alverca | Sporting Braga |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 5-5-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 70% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-6-1 | 4-4-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.