La Liga 2 (Spain) · Sun, Oct 11 · 12:00 · FC Andorra vs CD Castellón
Likeliest: CD Castellón win · 44%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 44% for the away win. The market says 43%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Andorra27%30%−3
OursMarket
Draw28%27%+2
OursMarket
CD Castellón44%43%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 64% | 61% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 56% | 57% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 73% | 70% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 73% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 38% | 42% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Andorra
LossLossLossWinDraw
- Oct 3 · at CE Sabadell (A)0-0
- Sep 26 · at Granada (A)3-2
- Sep 19 · v Sporting Gijón (H)1-3
- Sep 12 · v Real Sociedad B (H)1-3
- Sep 5 · at Real Valladolid (A)0-1
CD Castellón
WinWinWinWinDraw
- Oct 4 · v AD Ceuta (H)1-1
- Sep 28 · at Leganés (A)2-0
- Sep 19 · v CD Tenerife (H)5-0
- Sep 12 · at Girona FC (A)2-1
- Sep 6 · v Albacete Balompié (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | FC Andorra | CD Castellón |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-1-7 | 6-3-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-0-6 | 5-0-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.