K League 1 (South Korea) · Sat, Sep 19 · 10:00 · FC Anyang vs Ulsan HD
Likeliest: Ulsan HD win · 49%
A tight one: we make it 49% for the away win. The market says 47%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Anyang24%28%−3
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+2
OursMarket
Ulsan HD49%47%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 55% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | 57% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 52% | 53% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 76% | 72% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 33% | 37% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Anyang
WinDrawLossLossDraw
- Sep 13 · at Gwangju FC (A)1-1
- Sep 9 · at Daejeon Hana Citizen (A)2-3
- Sep 6 · v Gangwon FC (H)0-3
- Aug 29 · at Bucheon FC 1995 (A)1-1
- Aug 26 · v Incheon United (H)2-1
Ulsan HD
LossWinDrawWinWin
- Sep 12 · v Incheon United (H)2-1
- Sep 8 · v FC Seoul (H)1-0
- Sep 5 · at Jeju SK (A)0-0
- Aug 29 · v Gimcheon Sangmu FC (H)3-1
- Aug 26 · at Daejeon Hana Citizen (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | FC Anyang | Ulsan HD |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.4 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-1-4 | 3-4-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.