Europa League (Europe) · Thu, Oct 22 · 16:45 · FC Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar
Likeliest: AZ Alkmaar win · 68%
Likely score: 0–1
A 68% away win. The market says 64%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Ararat-Armenia11%16%−4
OursMarket
Draw20%20%0
OursMarket
AZ Alkmaar68%64%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 62% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 56% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 32% | 36% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 89% | 84% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 80% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 14% | 20% | −6 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Ararat-Armenia
LossDrawWinLossLoss
- Oct 15 · at Jagiellonia Białystok (A)1-3
- Sep 16 · v AC Sparta Praha (H)1-4
- Aug 27 · v Universitatea Craiova (H)1-0
- Aug 20 · at Universitatea Craiova (A)1-1
- Aug 11 · at NK Celje (A)0-2
AZ Alkmaar
LossWinLossWinDraw
- Oct 18 · at SC Cambuur (A)2-2
- Oct 15 · v Hapoel Be'er Sheva (H)2-1
- Oct 10 · at Feyenoord (A)0-2
- Sep 20 · v SC Telstar (H)1-0
- Sep 16 · at Sunderland (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | FC Ararat-Armenia | AZ Alkmaar |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-0-1 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.