Superliga (Romania) · Sat, Oct 24 · 15:00 · FC Argeș Pitești vs UTA Arad
Likeliest: FC Argeș Pitești win · 42%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 42% for the home win. The market says 46%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Argeș Pitești42%46%−4
OursMarket
Draw33%29%+4
OursMarket
UTA Arad25%25%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 41% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 52% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 75% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 54% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 67% | 71% | −4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 63% | 65% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.0 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Argeș Pitești
LossDrawLossLossDraw
- Oct 19 · at FC Universitatea Cluj (A)2-2
- Oct 12 · v CFR 1907 Cluj (H)0-1
- Sep 18 · at FC Rapid București (A)1-3
- Sep 13 · v FC Botoșani (H)1-1
- Sep 7 · at FC Voluntari (A)0-1
UTA Arad
WinLossWinLossWin
- Oct 18 · v CFR 1907 Cluj (H)1-0
- Oct 10 · at FC Botoșani (A)0-2
- Sep 18 · v Sepsi OSK (H)1-0
- Sep 11 · at FC Farul Constanța (A)2-4
- Sep 5 · v FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc (H)5-1
| Last 10 games | FC Argeș Pitești | UTA Arad |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-2-2 | 2-1-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.