Liga Portugal (Portugal) · Sun, Oct 11 · 19:30 · FC Arouca vs CF Estrela Amadora
Likeliest: FC Arouca win · 43%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 43% for the home win. The market says 44%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Arouca43%44%−1
OursMarket
Draw29%28%+1
OursMarket
CF Estrela Amadora28%28%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 50% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 55% | 54% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 72% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 56% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 72% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 61% | 61% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Arouca
LossWinDrawLossDraw
- Sep 19 · at Sporting (A)2-2
- Sep 13 · v Santa Clara (H)1-2
- Sep 7 · at Estoril Praia (A)0-0
- Aug 29 · v Marítimo (H)2-1
- Aug 23 · at FC Porto (A)0-2
CF Estrela Amadora
WinDrawWinDrawLoss
- Sep 20 · v Académico Viseu FC (H)0-2
- Sep 14 · at Rio Ave (A)3-3
- Sep 10 · v Sporting Braga (H)2-1
- Sep 5 · v Famalicão (H)2-2
- Aug 30 · at CD Nacional (A)3-2
| Last 10 games | FC Arouca | CF Estrela Amadora |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 2-6-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | 1-4-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.