Liga Portugal (Portugal) · Sun, Sep 13 · 17:00 · FC Arouca vs Santa Clara
Likeliest: FC Arouca win · 34%
A tight one: we make it 34% for the home win. The market says 36%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Arouca34%36%−2
OursMarket
Draw33%31%+2
OursMarket
Santa Clara33%34%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39% | 41% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 49% | 48% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 66% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 66% | 64% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 67% | 69% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 50% | 51% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Arouca
WinWinLossWinDraw
- Sep 7 · at Estoril Praia (A)0-0
- Aug 29 · v Marítimo (H)2-1
- Aug 23 · at FC Porto (A)0-2
- Aug 16 · v Moreirense (H)4-0
- Aug 8 · at Vitória SC (A)1-0
Santa Clara
DrawWinWinDrawWin
- Sep 6 · v Rio Ave (H)4-0
- Aug 29 · at FC Alverca (A)1-1
- Aug 23 · v Famalicão (H)1-0
- Aug 15 · at Académico Viseu FC (A)1-0
- Aug 10 · v CD Nacional (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | FC Arouca | Santa Clara |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 5-4-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | 2-5-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.