Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Oct 24 · 13:30 · FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Union Berlin
Likeliest: FC Augsburg win · 53%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 53% for the home win. The market says 51%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Augsburg53%51%+1
OursMarket
Draw24%24%0
OursMarket
1. FC Union Berlin24%25%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 64% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | 63% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 75% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 48% | 49% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 76% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 69% | 67% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Augsburg
WinDrawLossDrawLoss
- Oct 17 · at SV 07 Elversberg (A)3-4
- Oct 10 · v FC Bayern München (H)2-2
- Sep 19 · at SV Werder Bremen (A)2-3
- Sep 12 · v Bayer 04 Leverkusen (H)2-2
- Sep 6 · at Eintracht Frankfurt (A)4-1
1. FC Union Berlin
LossLossLossWinDraw
- Oct 17 · v Borussia Dortmund (H)0-0
- Oct 10 · v SV 07 Elversberg (H)1-0
- Sep 18 · at FC Bayern München (A)0-7
- Sep 11 · v FC Schalke 04 (H)1-3
- Sep 5 · at Bayer 04 Leverkusen (A)0-4
| Last 10 games | FC Augsburg | 1. FC Union Berlin |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.4 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 2.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-4-1 | 3-0-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.