Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Dec 6 · 14:30 · FC Augsburg vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Likeliest: Bayer 04 Leverkusen win · 39%
A 36% home win. The market says 25%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Augsburg36%25%+11
OursMarket
Draw25%25%+1
OursMarket
Bayer 04 Leverkusen39%51%−12
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 59% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 61% | 49% | +12 |
| Double chance X2 | 64% | 75% | −11 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 48% | 33% | +15 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Augsburg
LossLossLossWinLoss
- Nov 29 · at TSG Hoffenheim (A)0-3
- Nov 22 · v Hamburger SV (H)1-0
- Nov 9 · at VfB Stuttgart (A)2-3
- Oct 31 · v Borussia Dortmund (H)0-1
- Oct 28 · v VfL Bochum 1848 (H)0-1
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
WinWinWinLossWin
- Dec 2 · at Borussia Dortmund (A)1-0
- Nov 29 · v Borussia Dortmund (H)1-2
- Nov 25 · at Manchester City (A)2-0
- Nov 22 · at VfL Wolfsburg (A)3-1
- Nov 8 · v Heidenheim (H)6-0
| Last 10 games | FC Augsburg | Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-1-7 | 7-0-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.2 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-1-7 | 7-2-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
FC Augsburg form·Bayer 04 Leverkusen form·Head-to-head record