Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Sep 12 · 13:30 · FC Augsburg vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Likeliest: Bayer 04 Leverkusen win · 55%
A tight one: we make it 55% for the away win. The market says 53%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Augsburg22%24%−2
OursMarket
Draw23%23%0
OursMarket
Bayer 04 Leverkusen55%53%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 71% | 68% | +3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 70% | 66% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 45% | 47% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 78% | 76% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 28% | 31% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Augsburg
WinLossWinWinWin
- Sep 6 · at Eintracht Frankfurt (A)4-1
- Aug 30 · v FC Schalke 04 (H)3-0
- Aug 22 · at Energie Cottbus (A)2-0
- May 16 · at FC Union Berlin (A)0-4
- May 9 · v Borussia Mönchengladbach (H)3-1
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
LossDrawWinLossWin
- Sep 5 · v 1. FC Union Berlin (H)4-0
- Aug 29 · at SV 07 Elversberg (A)2-3
- Aug 22 · at SV Wehen Wiesbaden (A)4-0
- May 16 · v Hamburger SV (H)1-1
- May 9 · at VfB Stuttgart (A)1-3
| Last 10 games | FC Augsburg | Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-3-1 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-4-1 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
FC Augsburg form·Bayer 04 Leverkusen form·Head-to-head record