Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, May 9 · 13:30 · FC Augsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach
Likeliest: FC Augsburg win · 49%
A tight one: we make it 49% for the home win. The market says 48%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Augsburg49%48%+1
OursMarket
Draw25%25%0
OursMarket
Borussia Mönchengladbach26%27%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 63% | 0 |
| Both teams score | 53% | 64% | −11 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 73% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 51% | 52% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 75% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 65% | 63% | +2 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Augsburg
DrawDrawWinDrawWin
- May 2 · at Werder Bremen (A)3-1
- Apr 25 · v Eintracht Frankfurt (H)1-1
- Apr 18 · at Bayer 04 Leverkusen (A)2-1
- Apr 10 · v TSG Hoffenheim (H)2-2
- Apr 4 · at Hamburger SV (A)1-1
Borussia Mönchengladbach
DrawLossDrawDrawWin
- May 3 · v Borussia Dortmund (H)1-0
- Apr 25 · at VfL Wolfsburg (A)0-0
- Apr 19 · v FSV Mainz 05 (H)1-1
- Apr 11 · at RB Leipzig (A)0-1
- Apr 4 · v Heidenheim (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | FC Augsburg | Borussia Mönchengladbach |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-5-1 | 0-4-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
FC Augsburg form·Borussia Mönchengladbach form·Head-to-head record