Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Oct 10 · 13:30 · FC Augsburg vs FC Bayern München
Likeliest: FC Bayern München win · 84%
Likely score: 1–2
A 84% away win. The market says 80%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Augsburg6%9%−3
OursMarket
Draw10%12%−1
OursMarket
FC Bayern München84%80%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 88% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 84% | 83% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 49% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 66% | 66% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 16% | 20% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 94% | 91% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 90% | 88% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 6% | 10% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 2.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Augsburg
WinWinWinDrawLoss
- Sep 19 · at SV Werder Bremen (A)2-3
- Sep 12 · v Bayer 04 Leverkusen (H)2-2
- Sep 6 · at Eintracht Frankfurt (A)4-1
- Aug 30 · v FC Schalke 04 (H)3-0
- Aug 22 · at Energie Cottbus (A)2-0
FC Bayern München
WinDrawWinWinWin
- Sep 18 · v 1. FC Union Berlin (H)7-0
- Sep 13 · at SV 07 Elversberg (A)2-1
- Sep 10 · v Bodø/Glimt (H)5-0
- Sep 5 · at FC Schalke 04 (A)0-0
- Sep 2 · at VfL Osnabrück (A)4-1
| Last 10 games | FC Augsburg | FC Bayern München |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 8-2-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.2 | 3.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-4-1 | 8-1-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.