Bundesliga (Germany) · Thu, Jan 15 · 19:30 · FC Augsburg vs FC Union Berlin
Likeliest: FC Augsburg win · 38%
We make it 55% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 42%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Augsburg38%34%+4
OursMarket
Draw26%31%−5
OursMarket
FC Union Berlin36%35%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 42% | +13 |
| Both teams score | 57% | 49% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 64% | 65% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 62% | 66% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 69% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 51% | 49% | +2 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Augsburg
LossWinLossDrawLoss
- Jan 11 · at Borussia Mönchengladbach (A)0-4
- Dec 20 · v Werder Bremen (H)0-0
- Dec 13 · at Eintracht Frankfurt (A)0-1
- Dec 6 · v Bayer 04 Leverkusen (H)2-0
- Nov 29 · at TSG Hoffenheim (A)0-3
FC Union Berlin
LossLossWinWinDraw
- Jan 10 · v FSV Mainz 05 (H)2-2
- Dec 20 · at FC Köln (A)1-0
- Dec 12 · v RB Leipzig (H)3-1
- Dec 6 · at VfL Wolfsburg (A)1-3
- Dec 3 · v FC Bayern München (H)2-3
| Last 10 games | FC Augsburg | FC Union Berlin |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-1-7 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.5 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 10% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-1-6 | 5-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.