Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Nov 22 · 14:30 · FC Augsburg vs Hamburger SV
Likeliest: FC Augsburg win · 53%
A 53% home win. The market says 41%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Augsburg53%41%+12
OursMarket
Draw23%27%−4
OursMarket
Hamburger SV25%32%−8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 56% | +9 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 68% | +8 |
| Double chance X2 | 47% | 59% | −12 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 73% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 68% | 56% | +13 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Augsburg
DrawLossLossLossLoss
- Nov 9 · at VfB Stuttgart (A)2-3
- Oct 31 · v Borussia Dortmund (H)0-1
- Oct 28 · v VfL Bochum 1848 (H)0-1
- Oct 25 · v RB Leipzig (H)0-6
- Oct 18 · at FC Köln (A)1-1
Hamburger SV
LossLossWinLossDraw
- Nov 8 · v Borussia Dortmund (H)1-1
- Nov 2 · at FC Köln (A)1-4
- Oct 28 · at Heidenheim (A)1-0
- Oct 25 · v VfL Wolfsburg (H)0-1
- Oct 18 · at RB Leipzig (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | FC Augsburg | Hamburger SV |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-1-8 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.4 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-1-8 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.