Bundesliga (Germany) · Sun, Feb 15 · 14:30 · FC Augsburg vs Heidenheim
Likeliest: FC Augsburg win · 42%
A 33% away win. The market says 24%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Augsburg42%50%−8
OursMarket
Draw25%26%0
OursMarket
Heidenheim33%24%+9
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 54% | +5 |
| Both teams score | 64% | 57% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 76% | −9 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 50% | +8 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 74% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 56% | 68% | −11 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Augsburg
DrawDrawWinWinLoss
- Feb 7 · at FSV Mainz 05 (A)0-2
- Jan 31 · v St. Pauli (H)2-1
- Jan 24 · at FC Bayern München (A)2-1
- Jan 18 · v SC Freiburg (H)2-2
- Jan 15 · v FC Union Berlin (H)1-1
Heidenheim
LossDrawLossLossLoss
- Feb 7 · v Hamburger SV (H)0-2
- Feb 1 · at Borussia Dortmund (A)2-3
- Jan 24 · v RB Leipzig (H)0-3
- Jan 17 · at VfL Wolfsburg (A)1-1
- Jan 13 · at FSV Mainz 05 (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | FC Augsburg | Heidenheim |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 2.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 1-1-8 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.