Bundesliga (Germany) · Sun, Jan 18 · 16:30 · FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg
Likeliest: SC Freiburg win · 41%
We make it 57% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 47%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Augsburg34%35%−1
OursMarket
Draw25%29%−5
OursMarket
SC Freiburg41%36%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 47% | +10 |
| Both teams score | 59% | 53% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 59% | 64% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 66% | 65% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 71% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 45% | 50% | −4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Augsburg
WinLossDrawLossDraw
- Jan 15 · v FC Union Berlin (H)1-1
- Jan 11 · at Borussia Mönchengladbach (A)0-4
- Dec 20 · v Werder Bremen (H)0-0
- Dec 13 · at Eintracht Frankfurt (A)0-1
- Dec 6 · v Bayer 04 Leverkusen (H)2-0
SC Freiburg
WinDrawWinWinLoss
- Jan 14 · at RB Leipzig (A)0-2
- Jan 10 · v Hamburger SV (H)2-1
- Dec 20 · at VfL Wolfsburg (A)4-3
- Dec 14 · v Borussia Dortmund (H)1-1
- Dec 11 · v Salzburg (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | FC Augsburg | SC Freiburg |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.6 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.