Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Jan 31 · 14:30 · FC Augsburg vs St. Pauli
Likeliest: FC Augsburg win · 47%
We make it 54% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 43%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Augsburg47%48%−1
OursMarket
Draw25%29%−3
OursMarket
St. Pauli28%24%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 43% | +11 |
| Both teams score | 56% | 48% | +8 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 76% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | 52% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 71% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 63% | 67% | −4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Augsburg
DrawLossDrawDrawWin
- Jan 24 · at FC Bayern München (A)2-1
- Jan 18 · v SC Freiburg (H)2-2
- Jan 15 · v FC Union Berlin (H)1-1
- Jan 11 · at Borussia Mönchengladbach (A)0-4
- Dec 20 · v Werder Bremen (H)0-0
St. Pauli
DrawLossLossDrawDraw
- Jan 27 · v RB Leipzig (H)1-1
- Jan 23 · v Hamburger SV (H)0-0
- Jan 17 · at Borussia Dortmund (A)2-3
- Jan 14 · at VfL Wolfsburg (A)1-2
- Dec 21 · at FSV Mainz 05 (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | FC Augsburg | St. Pauli |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 1-2-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.