Bundesliga (Germany) · Fri, Apr 10 · 18:30 · FC Augsburg vs TSG Hoffenheim
Likeliest: FC Augsburg win · 47%
A 47% home win. The market says 28%.
19 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Augsburg47%28%+19
OursMarket
Draw21%25%−4
OursMarket
TSG Hoffenheim32%46%−14
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% | −1 |
| Both teams score | 61% | 63% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 54% | +14 |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | 72% | −18 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 75% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 60% | 38% | +21 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Augsburg
WinLossLossLossDraw
- Apr 4 · at Hamburger SV (A)1-1
- Mar 22 · v VfB Stuttgart (H)2-5
- Mar 14 · at Borussia Dortmund (A)0-2
- Mar 7 · at RB Leipzig (A)1-2
- Feb 27 · v FC Köln (H)2-0
TSG Hoffenheim
LossWinDrawLossLoss
- Apr 4 · v FSV Mainz 05 (H)1-2
- Mar 20 · at RB Leipzig (A)0-5
- Mar 14 · v VfL Wolfsburg (H)1-1
- Mar 7 · at Heidenheim (A)4-2
- Feb 28 · v St. Pauli (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | FC Augsburg | TSG Hoffenheim |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.