Bundesliga (Germany) · Sun, Mar 22 · 18:30 · FC Augsburg vs VfB Stuttgart
Likeliest: VfB Stuttgart win · 44%
A 33% home win. The market says 28%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Augsburg33%28%+6
OursMarket
Draw22%25%−3
OursMarket
VfB Stuttgart44%47%−3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 61% | +2 |
| Both teams score | 65% | 63% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 56% | 53% | +3 |
| Double chance X2 | 67% | 72% | −6 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 75% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 43% | 37% | +6 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Augsburg
WinWinWinLossLoss
- Mar 14 · at Borussia Dortmund (A)0-2
- Mar 7 · at RB Leipzig (A)1-2
- Feb 27 · v FC Köln (H)2-0
- Feb 21 · at VfL Wolfsburg (A)3-2
- Feb 15 · v Heidenheim (H)1-0
VfB Stuttgart
WinDrawLossWinLoss
- Mar 19 · at Porto (A)0-2
- Mar 15 · v RB Leipzig (H)1-0
- Mar 12 · v Porto (H)1-2
- Mar 7 · at FSV Mainz 05 (A)2-2
- Mar 1 · v VfL Wolfsburg (H)4-0
| Last 10 games | FC Augsburg | VfB Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.