Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Dec 20 · 14:30 · FC Augsburg vs Werder Bremen
Likeliest: FC Augsburg win · 40%
A 36% away win. The market says 32%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Augsburg40%41%−2
OursMarket
Draw24%27%−3
OursMarket
Werder Bremen36%32%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 54% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 64% | 68% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 59% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 73% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 52% | 57% | −4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Augsburg
LossWinLossWinLoss
- Dec 13 · at Eintracht Frankfurt (A)0-1
- Dec 6 · v Bayer 04 Leverkusen (H)2-0
- Nov 29 · at TSG Hoffenheim (A)0-3
- Nov 22 · v Hamburger SV (H)1-0
- Nov 9 · at VfB Stuttgart (A)2-3
Werder Bremen
WinLossDrawLossLoss
- Dec 14 · v VfB Stuttgart (H)0-4
- Dec 7 · at Hamburger SV (A)2-3
- Nov 29 · v FC Köln (H)1-1
- Nov 23 · at RB Leipzig (A)0-2
- Nov 7 · v VfL Wolfsburg (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | FC Augsburg | Werder Bremen |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-1-6 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-0-7 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.