La Liga (Spain) · Sat, Nov 22 · 15:15 · FC Barcelona vs Athletic Club
Likeliest: FC Barcelona win · 65%
A tight one: we make it 65% for the home win. The market says 68%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Barcelona65%68%−3
OursMarket
Draw19%19%+1
OursMarket
Athletic Club16%14%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 62% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 85% | 86% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 35% | 32% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 81% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 81% | 83% | −2 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Barcelona
WinLossWinDrawWin
- Nov 9 · at Celta de Vigo (A)4-2
- Nov 5 · at Club Brugge (A)3-3
- Nov 2 · v Elche (H)3-1
- Oct 26 · at Real Madrid (A)1-2
- Oct 21 · v Olympiacos F.C. (H)6-1
Athletic Club
LossLossWinWinDraw
- Nov 15 · at Coritiba (A)0-0
- Nov 9 · v Real Oviedo (H)1-0
- Nov 7 · v Ferroviária (H)2-1
- Nov 5 · at Newcastle United (A)0-2
- Nov 1 · at Avaí (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | FC Barcelona | Athletic Club |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-3 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | 1-2-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.