Copa Del Rey (Spain) · Tue, Feb 25 · 20:30 · FC Barcelona vs Atlético Madrid
Likeliest: FC Barcelona win · 53%
A tight one: we make it 53% for the home win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
FC Barcelona53%——
OursMarket
Draw21%——
OursMarket
Atlético Madrid26%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 71% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 47% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 67% | — | — |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Barcelona
WinWinWinWinWin
- Feb 22 · at Las Palmas (A)2-0
- Feb 17 · v Rayo Vallecano (H)1-0
- Feb 9 · at Sevilla (A)4-1
- Feb 6 · at Valencia (A)5-0
- Feb 2 · v Deportivo Alavés (H)1-0
Atlético Madrid
WinWinDrawDrawWin
- Feb 22 · at Valencia (A)3-0
- Feb 15 · v Celta de Vigo (H)1-1
- Feb 8 · at Real Madrid (A)1-1
- Feb 4 · v Getafe (H)5-0
- Feb 1 · v Mallorca (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | FC Barcelona | Atlético Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 8-2-0 | 6-3-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 3.3 | 2.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-0 | 4-1-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.