La Liga (Spain) · Tue, Dec 2 · 20:00 · FC Barcelona vs Atlético Madrid
Likeliest: FC Barcelona win · 58%
We make it 38% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 33%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Barcelona58%53%+5
OursMarket
Draw22%23%−1
OursMarket
Atlético Madrid20%24%−4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 67% | −6 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 76% | +4 |
| Double chance X2 | 42% | 47% | −5 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 74% | 69% | +5 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Barcelona
DrawWinWinLossWin
- Nov 29 · v Deportivo Alavés (H)3-1
- Nov 25 · at Chelsea (A)0-3
- Nov 22 · v Athletic Club (H)4-0
- Nov 9 · at Celta de Vigo (A)4-2
- Nov 5 · at Club Brugge (A)3-3
Atlético Madrid
WinWinWinWinWin
- Nov 29 · v Real Oviedo (H)2-0
- Nov 26 · v Inter (H)2-1
- Nov 23 · at Getafe (A)1-0
- Nov 8 · v Levante (H)3-1
- Nov 4 · v Union Saint-Gilloise (H)3-1
| Last 10 games | FC Barcelona | Atlético Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-3 | 8-1-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.7 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-0-2 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.