Copa Del Rey (Spain) · Tue, Mar 3 · 20:00 · FC Barcelona vs Atlético Madrid
Likeliest: FC Barcelona win · 63%
We make it 35% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 25%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Barcelona63%64%−1
OursMarket
Draw18%18%0
OursMarket
Atlético Madrid19%18%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 75% | −9 |
| Both teams score | 65% | 68% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 81% | 82% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 37% | 36% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 82% | 82% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 77% | 78% | −2 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Barcelona
WinLossLossWinWin
- Feb 28 · v Villarreal (H)4-1
- Feb 22 · v Levante (H)3-0
- Feb 16 · at Girona (A)1-2
- Feb 12 · at Atlético Madrid (A)0-4
- Feb 7 · v Mallorca (H)3-0
Atlético Madrid
LossDrawWinWinWin
- Feb 28 · at Real Oviedo (A)1-0
- Feb 24 · v Club Brugge (H)4-1
- Feb 21 · v Espanyol (H)4-2
- Feb 18 · at Club Brugge (A)3-3
- Feb 15 · at Rayo Vallecano (A)0-3
| Last 10 games | FC Barcelona | Atlético Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 8-0-2 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.7 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 10-0-0 | 5-4-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.