Champions League (Europe) · Wed, Apr 8 · 19:00 · FC Barcelona vs Atlético Madrid
Likeliest: FC Barcelona win · 67%
We make it 39% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 30%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Barcelona67%62%+5
OursMarket
Draw18%19%−1
OursMarket
Atlético Madrid15%18%−4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 70% | −9 |
| Both teams score | 63% | 65% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 85% | 82% | +4 |
| Double chance X2 | 33% | 38% | −5 |
| Double chance 12 | 82% | 81% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 82% | 77% | +5 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Barcelona
DrawWinWinWinWin
- Apr 4 · at Atlético Madrid (A)2-1
- Mar 22 · v Rayo Vallecano (H)1-0
- Mar 18 · v Newcastle United (H)7-2
- Mar 15 · v Sevilla (H)5-2
- Mar 10 · at Newcastle United (A)1-1
Atlético Madrid
WinWinLossLossLoss
- Apr 4 · v FC Barcelona (H)1-2
- Mar 22 · at Real Madrid (A)2-3
- Mar 18 · at Tottenham Hotspur (A)2-3
- Mar 14 · v Getafe (H)1-0
- Mar 10 · v Tottenham Hotspur (H)5-2
| Last 10 games | FC Barcelona | Atlético Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 8-1-1 | 6-0-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.8 | 2.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 10-0-0 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.