La Liga (Spain) · Wed, Apr 22 · 19:30 · FC Barcelona vs Celta de Vigo
Likeliest: FC Barcelona win · 71%
We make it 36% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 27%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Barcelona71%76%−5
OursMarket
Draw17%14%+2
OursMarket
Celta de Vigo13%10%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 73% | −9 |
| Both teams score | 66% | 57% | +8 |
| Double chance 1X | 88% | 90% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 29% | 24% | +5 |
| Double chance 12 | 84% | 86% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 85% | 89% | −4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Barcelona
WinWinLossWinWin
- Apr 14 · at Atlético Madrid (A)2-1
- Apr 11 · v Espanyol (H)4-1
- Apr 8 · v Atlético Madrid (H)0-2
- Apr 4 · at Atlético Madrid (A)2-1
- Mar 22 · v Rayo Vallecano (H)1-0
Celta de Vigo
LossWinLossLossLoss
- Apr 16 · v SC Freiburg (H)1-3
- Apr 12 · v Real Oviedo (H)0-3
- Apr 9 · at SC Freiburg (A)0-3
- Apr 5 · at Valencia (A)3-2
- Mar 22 · v Deportivo Alavés (H)3-4
| Last 10 games | FC Barcelona | Celta de Vigo |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 8-1-1 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.6 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 9-0-1 | 4-4-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.