La Liga (Spain) · Sat, Nov 29 · 15:15 · FC Barcelona vs Deportivo Alavés
Likeliest: FC Barcelona win · 62%
We make it 44% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 31%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Barcelona62%79%−17
OursMarket
Draw22%14%+8
OursMarket
Deportivo Alavés16%8%+8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 69% | −12 |
| Double chance 1X | 84% | 92% | −8 |
| Double chance X2 | 38% | 21% | +17 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 86% | −8 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 79% | 91% | −12 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Barcelona
WinDrawWinWinLoss
- Nov 25 · at Chelsea (A)0-3
- Nov 22 · v Athletic Club (H)4-0
- Nov 9 · at Celta de Vigo (A)4-2
- Nov 5 · at Club Brugge (A)3-3
- Nov 2 · v Elche (H)3-1
Deportivo Alavés
LossWinWinLossLoss
- Nov 22 · v Celta de Vigo (H)0-1
- Nov 8 · at Girona (A)0-1
- Nov 2 · v Espanyol (H)2-1
- Oct 30 · at Getxo (A)7-0
- Oct 26 · at Rayo Vallecano (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | FC Barcelona | Deportivo Alavés |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.5 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-0-2 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.