La Liga (Spain) · Sat, Apr 11 · 16:30 · FC Barcelona vs Espanyol
Likeliest: FC Barcelona win · 71%
We make it 40% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 28%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Barcelona71%74%−2
OursMarket
Draw18%15%+2
OursMarket
Espanyol11%11%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 72% | −11 |
| Both teams score | 56% | 58% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 89% | 89% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 29% | 26% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 82% | 85% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 86% | 87% | −1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Barcelona
WinWinWinWinLoss
- Apr 8 · v Atlético Madrid (H)0-2
- Apr 4 · at Atlético Madrid (A)2-1
- Mar 22 · v Rayo Vallecano (H)1-0
- Mar 18 · v Newcastle United (H)7-2
- Mar 15 · v Sevilla (H)5-2
Espanyol
DrawDrawLossLossDraw
- Apr 4 · at Real Betis (A)0-0
- Mar 21 · v Getafe (H)1-2
- Mar 15 · at Mallorca (A)1-2
- Mar 9 · v Real Oviedo (H)1-1
- Mar 1 · at Elche (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | FC Barcelona | Espanyol |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 8-1-1 | 0-4-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.7 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 2.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 9-0-1 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.