La Liga (Spain) · Sat, Dec 13 · 17:30 · FC Barcelona vs Osasuna
Likeliest: FC Barcelona win · 64%
A 21% draw. The market says 13%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Barcelona64%79%−15
OursMarket
Draw21%13%+8
OursMarket
Osasuna15%8%+6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 75% | −21 |
| Double chance 1X | 85% | 92% | −6 |
| Double chance X2 | 36% | 21% | +15 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 87% | −8 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 81% | 91% | −9 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Barcelona
LossWinWinWinWin
- Dec 9 · v Eintracht Frankfurt (H)2-1
- Dec 6 · at Real Betis (A)5-3
- Dec 2 · v Atlético Madrid (H)3-1
- Nov 29 · v Deportivo Alavés (H)3-1
- Nov 25 · at Chelsea (A)0-3
Osasuna
LossLossDrawWinWin
- Dec 8 · v Levante (H)2-0
- Dec 2 · at CD Ebro (A)5-3
- Nov 29 · at Mallorca (A)2-2
- Nov 22 · v Real Sociedad (H)1-3
- Nov 8 · at Sevilla (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | FC Barcelona | Osasuna |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-1-2 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.8 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 9-0-1 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.