La Liga (Spain) · Sun, May 17 · 19:15 · FC Barcelona vs Real Betis
Likeliest: FC Barcelona win · 70%
We make it 36% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 29%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Barcelona70%69%0
OursMarket
Draw17%17%0
OursMarket
Real Betis13%14%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 71% | −8 |
| Both teams score | 64% | 62% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 87% | 86% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 30% | 31% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 83% | 83% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 84% | 83% | +1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Barcelona
WinWinWinWinLoss
- May 13 · at Deportivo Alavés (A)0-1
- May 10 · v Real Madrid (H)2-0
- May 2 · at Osasuna (A)2-1
- Apr 25 · at Getafe (A)2-0
- Apr 22 · v Celta de Vigo (H)1-0
Real Betis
WinDrawWinDrawWin
- May 12 · v Elche (H)2-1
- May 9 · at Real Sociedad (A)2-2
- May 3 · v Real Oviedo (H)3-0
- Apr 24 · v Real Madrid (H)1-1
- Apr 21 · at Girona (A)3-2
| Last 10 games | FC Barcelona | Real Betis |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 8-0-2 | 3-5-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 9-0-1 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.