La Liga (Spain) · Sun, May 10 · 19:00 · FC Barcelona vs Real Madrid
Likeliest: FC Barcelona win · 63%
We make it 43% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 25%.
18 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Barcelona63%58%+5
OursMarket
Draw19%20%−2
OursMarket
Real Madrid18%22%−4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 75% | −18 |
| Both teams score | 64% | 71% | −7 |
| Double chance 1X | 82% | 78% | +3 |
| Double chance X2 | 37% | 42% | −5 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 80% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 77% | 73% | +5 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Barcelona
WinWinWinWinWin
- May 2 · at Osasuna (A)2-1
- Apr 25 · at Getafe (A)2-0
- Apr 22 · v Celta de Vigo (H)1-0
- Apr 14 · at Atlético Madrid (A)2-1
- Apr 11 · v Espanyol (H)4-1
Real Madrid
DrawLossWinDrawWin
- May 3 · at Espanyol (A)2-0
- Apr 24 · at Real Betis (A)1-1
- Apr 21 · v Deportivo Alavés (H)2-1
- Apr 15 · at FC Bayern München (A)3-4
- Apr 10 · v Girona (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | FC Barcelona | Real Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 9-0-1 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.6 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 9-0-1 | 5-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.