La Liga (Spain) · Sun, Mar 15 · 15:15 · FC Barcelona vs Sevilla
Likeliest: FC Barcelona win · 70%
We make it 34% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 29%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Barcelona70%75%−5
OursMarket
Draw17%15%+2
OursMarket
Sevilla13%10%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 71% | −6 |
| Both teams score | 62% | 57% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 87% | 90% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 30% | 25% | +5 |
| Double chance 12 | 83% | 85% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 84% | 88% | −4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Barcelona
WinWinWinWinDraw
- Mar 10 · at Newcastle United (A)1-1
- Mar 7 · at Athletic Club (A)1-0
- Mar 3 · v Atlético Madrid (H)3-0
- Feb 28 · v Villarreal (H)4-1
- Feb 22 · v Levante (H)3-0
Sevilla
DrawDrawWinDrawDraw
- Mar 8 · v Rayo Vallecano (H)1-1
- Mar 1 · at Real Betis (A)2-2
- Feb 22 · at Getafe (A)1-0
- Feb 14 · v Deportivo Alavés (H)1-1
- Feb 7 · v Girona (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | FC Barcelona | Sevilla |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-1-2 | 2-5-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 10-0-0 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.