La Liga (Spain) · Sat, Feb 28 · 15:15 · FC Barcelona vs Villarreal
Likeliest: FC Barcelona win · 67%
We make it 40% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 25%.
15 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Barcelona67%71%−4
OursMarket
Draw19%16%+3
OursMarket
Villarreal15%13%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 75% | −15 |
| Both teams score | 61% | 64% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 85% | 87% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 33% | 29% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 84% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 82% | 84% | −2 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Barcelona
WinWinLossLossWin
- Feb 22 · v Levante (H)3-0
- Feb 16 · at Girona (A)1-2
- Feb 12 · at Atlético Madrid (A)0-4
- Feb 7 · v Mallorca (H)3-0
- Feb 3 · at Albacete (A)2-1
Villarreal
DrawWinLossWinWin
- Feb 22 · v Valencia (H)2-1
- Feb 18 · at Levante (A)1-0
- Feb 14 · at Getafe (A)1-2
- Feb 9 · v Espanyol (H)4-1
- Jan 31 · at Osasuna (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | FC Barcelona | Villarreal |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-0-3 | 4-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.4 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 10-0-0 | 4-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.