Bundesliga (Germany) · Fri, Sep 18 · 18:30 · FC Bayern München vs 1. FC Union Berlin
Likeliest: FC Bayern München win · 93%
A tight one: we make it 93% for the home win. The market says 90%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Bayern München93%90%+2
OursMarket
Draw4%6%−2
OursMarket
1. FC Union Berlin4%4%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 91% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 87% | 84% | +3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 55% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 50% | 51% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 96% | 96% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 7% | 10% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 97% | 94% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 96% | 96% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 3.3 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Bayern München
WinWinDrawWinWin
- Sep 13 · at SV 07 Elversberg (A)2-1
- Sep 10 · v Bodø/Glimt (H)5-0
- Sep 5 · at FC Schalke 04 (A)0-0
- Sep 2 · at VfL Osnabrück (A)4-1
- Aug 28 · v VfB Stuttgart (H)5-1
1. FC Union Berlin
WinWinDrawLossLoss
- Sep 11 · v FC Schalke 04 (H)1-3
- Sep 5 · at Bayer 04 Leverkusen (A)0-4
- Aug 29 · v Eintracht Frankfurt (H)3-3
- Aug 23 · at Eintracht Braunschweig (A)4-2
- May 16 · v FC Augsburg (H)4-0
| Last 10 games | FC Bayern München | 1. FC Union Berlin |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-3-0 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.9 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 2.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-2-0 | 3-0-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.