Champions League (Europe) · Wed, Oct 21 · 19:00 · FC Bayern München vs Arsenal
Likeliest: FC Bayern München win · 43%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 43% for the home win. The market says 44%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Bayern München43%44%0
OursMarket
Draw26%25%0
OursMarket
Arsenal31%31%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 85% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 59% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | 62% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 69% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 56% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 58% | 59% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 2.2 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Bayern München
WinWinDrawDrawWin
- Oct 17 · v RB Leipzig (H)6-1
- Oct 13 · at Viking FK (A)3-3
- Oct 10 · at FC Augsburg (A)2-2
- Sep 18 · v 1. FC Union Berlin (H)7-0
- Sep 13 · at SV 07 Elversberg (A)2-1
Arsenal
WinLossWinWinWin
- Oct 18 · at Nottingham Forest (A)1-0
- Oct 13 · v Lille (H)3-0
- Oct 10 · v Leeds United (H)2-1
- Sep 19 · at Brighton & Hove Albion (A)0-3
- Sep 15 · at Ipswich Town (A)4-2
| Last 10 games | FC Bayern München | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-3-0 | 9-0-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 3.7 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-2-0 | 7-2-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.