Champions League (Europe) · Thu, Sep 10 · 19:00 · FC Bayern München vs Bodø/Glimt
Likeliest: FC Bayern München win · 66%
We make it 36% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 16%.
19 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Bayern München66%87%−21
OursMarket
Draw18%8%+10
OursMarket
Bodø/Glimt16%5%+11
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 84% | −19 |
| Both teams score | 67% | 57% | +10 |
| Double chance 1X | 85% | 95% | −11 |
| Double chance X2 | 34% | 13% | +21 |
| Double chance 12 | 82% | 92% | −10 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 81% | 95% | −14 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Bayern München
WinWinWinWinDraw
- Sep 5 · at FC Schalke 04 (A)0-0
- Sep 2 · at VfL Osnabrück (A)4-1
- Aug 28 · v VfB Stuttgart (H)5-1
- May 23 · v VfB Stuttgart (H)3-0
- May 16 · v FC Köln (H)5-1
Bodø/Glimt
DrawWinWinWinWin
- Sep 4 · at Fredrikstad FK (A)2-1
- Aug 30 · v Rosenborg BK (H)4-2
- Aug 25 · v NEC Nijmegen (H)3-0
- Aug 19 · at NEC Nijmegen (A)3-1
- Aug 11 · v Royale Union Saint-Gilloise (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | FC Bayern München | Bodø/Glimt |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-3-1 | 8-2-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 3.0 | 2.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-2-0 | 5-2-0 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.