Bundesliga (Germany) · Fri, Mar 6 · 19:30 · FC Bayern München vs Borussia Mönchengladbach
Likeliest: FC Bayern München win · 65%
We make it 69% for both teams to score. The market says 53%.
16 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Bayern München65%84%−19
OursMarket
Draw19%10%+9
OursMarket
Borussia Mönchengladbach17%6%+10
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 78% | −10 |
| Both teams score | 69% | 53% | +16 |
| Double chance 1X | 83% | 94% | −10 |
| Double chance X2 | 35% | 16% | +19 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 90% | −9 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 80% | 93% | −14 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Bayern München
WinWinWinWinWin
- Feb 28 · at Borussia Dortmund (A)3-2
- Feb 21 · v Eintracht Frankfurt (H)3-2
- Feb 14 · at Werder Bremen (A)3-0
- Feb 11 · v RB Leipzig (H)2-0
- Feb 8 · v TSG Hoffenheim (H)5-1
Borussia Mönchengladbach
DrawDrawLossLossWin
- Feb 28 · v FC Union Berlin (H)1-0
- Feb 22 · at SC Freiburg (A)1-2
- Feb 14 · at Eintracht Frankfurt (A)0-3
- Feb 7 · v Bayer 04 Leverkusen (H)1-1
- Jan 31 · at Werder Bremen (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | FC Bayern München | Borussia Mönchengladbach |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 8-1-1 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.8 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-1-1 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
FC Bayern München form·Borussia Mönchengladbach form·Head-to-head record