Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Feb 21 · 14:30 · FC Bayern München vs Eintracht Frankfurt
Likeliest: FC Bayern München win · 72%
We make it 33% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 19%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Bayern München72%91%−20
OursMarket
Draw17%6%+11
OursMarket
Eintracht Frankfurt11%3%+9
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 81% | −14 |
| Both teams score | 62% | 55% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 89% | 97% | −9 |
| Double chance X2 | 28% | 9% | +20 |
| Double chance 12 | 83% | 94% | −11 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 86% | 97% | −11 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Bayern München
WinDrawWinWinWin
- Feb 14 · at Werder Bremen (A)3-0
- Feb 11 · v RB Leipzig (H)2-0
- Feb 8 · v TSG Hoffenheim (H)5-1
- Jan 31 · at Hamburger SV (A)2-2
- Jan 28 · at PSV (A)2-1
Eintracht Frankfurt
LossLossLossDrawWin
- Feb 14 · v Borussia Mönchengladbach (H)3-0
- Feb 6 · at FC Union Berlin (A)1-1
- Jan 31 · v Bayer 04 Leverkusen (H)1-3
- Jan 28 · v Tottenham Hotspur (H)0-2
- Jan 24 · v TSG Hoffenheim (H)1-3
| Last 10 games | FC Bayern München | Eintracht Frankfurt |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 8-1-1 | 1-4-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 3.3 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 2.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-1-1 | 1-5-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
FC Bayern München form·Eintracht Frankfurt form·Head-to-head record