Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Jan 24 · 14:30 · FC Bayern München vs FC Augsburg
Likeliest: FC Bayern München win · 74%
We make it 36% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 21%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Bayern München74%87%−13
OursMarket
Draw17%9%+8
OursMarket
FC Augsburg9%5%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 79% | −14 |
| Both teams score | 55% | 49% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 91% | 95% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 26% | 13% | +13 |
| Double chance 12 | 83% | 91% | −8 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 89% | 95% | −6 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Bayern München
WinWinWinWinWin
- Jan 21 · v Union Saint-Gilloise (H)2-0
- Jan 17 · at RB Leipzig (A)5-1
- Jan 14 · at FC Köln (A)3-1
- Jan 11 · v VfL Wolfsburg (H)8-1
- Dec 21 · at Heidenheim (A)4-0
FC Augsburg
LossDrawLossDrawDraw
- Jan 18 · v SC Freiburg (H)2-2
- Jan 15 · v FC Union Berlin (H)1-1
- Jan 11 · at Borussia Mönchengladbach (A)0-4
- Dec 20 · v Werder Bremen (H)0-0
- Dec 13 · at Eintracht Frankfurt (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | FC Bayern München | FC Augsburg |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 9-1-0 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 3.8 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 9-1-0 | 2-1-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.