Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, May 16 · 13:30 · FC Bayern München vs FC Köln
Likeliest: FC Bayern München win · 73%
We make it 27% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 16%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Bayern München73%82%−9
OursMarket
Draw16%11%+6
OursMarket
FC Köln10%7%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 74% | 84% | −10 |
| Both teams score | 63% | 65% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 90% | 93% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 27% | 18% | +9 |
| Double chance 12 | 84% | 89% | −6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 88% | 92% | −4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Bayern München
WinLossDrawDrawWin
- May 9 · at VfL Wolfsburg (A)1-0
- May 6 · v Paris Saint Germain (H)1-1
- May 2 · v Heidenheim (H)3-3
- Apr 28 · at Paris Saint Germain (A)4-5
- Apr 25 · at FSV Mainz 05 (A)4-3
FC Köln
WinDrawLossDrawLoss
- May 10 · v Heidenheim (H)1-3
- May 2 · at FC Union Berlin (A)2-2
- Apr 25 · v Bayer 04 Leverkusen (H)1-2
- Apr 17 · at St. Pauli (A)1-1
- Apr 12 · v Werder Bremen (H)3-1
| Last 10 games | FC Bayern München | FC Köln |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-2-1 | 1-5-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 3.0 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-2-0 | 0-6-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.