Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Mar 21 · 14:30 · FC Bayern München vs FC Union Berlin
Likeliest: FC Bayern München win · 69%
We make it 62% for both teams to score. The market says 50%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Bayern München69%83%−14
OursMarket
Draw18%11%+8
OursMarket
FC Union Berlin13%6%+7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 73% | −8 |
| Both teams score | 62% | 50% | +12 |
| Double chance 1X | 87% | 94% | −7 |
| Double chance X2 | 31% | 17% | +14 |
| Double chance 12 | 82% | 89% | −8 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 84% | 93% | −9 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Bayern München
WinWinWinDrawWin
- Mar 18 · v Atalanta (H)4-1
- Mar 14 · at Bayer 04 Leverkusen (A)1-1
- Mar 10 · at Atalanta (A)6-1
- Mar 6 · v Borussia Mönchengladbach (H)4-1
- Feb 28 · at Borussia Dortmund (A)3-2
FC Union Berlin
LossWinLossLossWin
- Mar 15 · at SC Freiburg (A)1-0
- Mar 8 · v Werder Bremen (H)1-4
- Feb 28 · at Borussia Mönchengladbach (A)0-1
- Feb 21 · v Bayer 04 Leverkusen (H)1-0
- Feb 14 · at Hamburger SV (A)2-3
| Last 10 games | FC Bayern München | FC Union Berlin |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 8-2-0 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 3.3 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-1-1 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
FC Bayern München form·FC Union Berlin form·Head-to-head record