Bundesliga (Germany) · Sun, Dec 14 · 16:30 · FC Bayern München vs FSV Mainz 05
Likeliest: FC Bayern München win · 69%
A 20% draw. The market says 8%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Bayern München69%87%−18
OursMarket
Draw20%8%+12
OursMarket
FSV Mainz 0511%4%+6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 78% | −29 |
| Double chance 1X | 89% | 96% | −6 |
| Double chance X2 | 31% | 13% | +18 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 92% | −12 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 87% | 95% | −9 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Bayern München
LossWinWinWinWin
- Dec 9 · v Sporting CP (H)3-1
- Dec 6 · at VfB Stuttgart (A)5-0
- Dec 3 · at FC Union Berlin (A)3-2
- Nov 29 · v St. Pauli (H)3-1
- Nov 26 · at Arsenal (A)1-3
FSV Mainz 05
DrawLossLossLossDraw
- Dec 11 · at Lech Poznań (A)1-1
- Dec 5 · v Borussia Mönchengladbach (H)0-1
- Nov 30 · at SC Freiburg (A)0-4
- Nov 27 · at Universitatea Craiova (A)0-1
- Nov 21 · v TSG Hoffenheim (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | FC Bayern München | FSV Mainz 05 |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 8-1-1 | 1-3-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 3.2 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 10-0-0 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
FC Bayern München form·FSV Mainz 05 form·Head-to-head record