Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, May 2 · 13:30 · FC Bayern München vs Heidenheim
Likeliest: FC Bayern München win · 78%
A tight one: we make it 78% for the home win. The market says 75%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Bayern München78%75%+2
OursMarket
Draw14%14%0
OursMarket
Heidenheim8%10%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 77% | 77% | 0 |
| Both teams score | 62% | 63% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 92% | 90% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 22% | 25% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 86% | 86% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 90% | 88% | +2 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Bayern München
WinWinWinWinLoss
- Apr 28 · at Paris Saint Germain (A)4-5
- Apr 25 · at FSV Mainz 05 (A)4-3
- Apr 22 · at Bayer 04 Leverkusen (A)2-0
- Apr 19 · v VfB Stuttgart (H)4-2
- Apr 15 · v Real Madrid (H)4-3
Heidenheim
DrawDrawWinLossWin
- Apr 25 · v St. Pauli (H)2-0
- Apr 19 · at SC Freiburg (A)1-2
- Apr 11 · v FC Union Berlin (H)3-1
- Apr 4 · at Borussia Mönchengladbach (A)2-2
- Mar 21 · v Bayer 04 Leverkusen (H)3-3
| Last 10 games | FC Bayern München | Heidenheim |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 9-0-1 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 3.6 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 9-0-1 | 1-2-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.