UEFA Women's Champions League (Europe) · Tue, Sep 22 · 16:45 · FC Bayern München vs Manchester City
Likeliest: FC Bayern München win · 62%
We make it 77% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 68%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Bayern München62%41%+20
OursMarket
Draw19%24%−6
OursMarket
Manchester City20%34%−15
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 91% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 77% | 68% | +9 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 57% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 72% | 65% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 66% | +15 |
| Double chance X2 | 38% | 59% | −20 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 76% | +6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 76% | 55% | +21 |
| Expected goals | 2.5 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Bayern München
No recent results tracked.
Manchester City
WinWinWin
- Sep 18 · v Liverpool FC (H)4-2
- Sep 13 · at Aston Villa (A)4-1
- Sep 6 · v Birmingham City W.F.C. (H)3-1