Champions League (Europe) · Wed, May 6 · 19:00 · FC Bayern München vs Paris Saint Germain
Likeliest: FC Bayern München win · 53%
We make it 39% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 20%.
19 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Bayern München53%60%−7
OursMarket
Draw21%18%+3
OursMarket
Paris Saint Germain26%22%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 80% | −19 |
| Both teams score | 79% | 75% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 78% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 47% | 40% | +7 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 82% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 67% | 73% | −6 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Bayern München
WinWinWinLossDraw
- May 2 · v Heidenheim (H)3-3
- Apr 28 · at Paris Saint Germain (A)4-5
- Apr 25 · at FSV Mainz 05 (A)4-3
- Apr 22 · at Bayer 04 Leverkusen (A)2-0
- Apr 19 · v VfB Stuttgart (H)4-2
Paris Saint Germain
LossWinWinWinDraw
- May 2 · v Lorient (H)2-2
- Apr 28 · v FC Bayern München (H)5-4
- Apr 25 · at Angers SCO (A)3-0
- Apr 22 · v Nantes (H)3-0
- Apr 19 · v Olympique Lyonnais (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | FC Bayern München | Paris Saint Germain |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 8-1-1 | 8-1-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 3.5 | 2.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-1-1 | 8-0-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.