DFB Pokal (Germany) · Wed, Feb 11 · 19:45 · FC Bayern München vs RB Leipzig
Likeliest: FC Bayern München win · 67%
We make it 36% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 23%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Bayern München67%74%−7
OursMarket
Draw17%15%+2
OursMarket
RB Leipzig16%11%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 77% | −13 |
| Both teams score | 64% | 64% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 84% | 89% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 33% | 26% | +7 |
| Double chance 12 | 83% | 85% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 81% | 87% | −7 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Bayern München
WinLossWinDrawWin
- Feb 8 · v TSG Hoffenheim (H)5-1
- Jan 31 · at Hamburger SV (A)2-2
- Jan 28 · at PSV (A)2-1
- Jan 24 · v FC Augsburg (H)1-2
- Jan 21 · v Union Saint-Gilloise (H)2-0
RB Leipzig
LossWinDrawLossWin
- Feb 8 · at FC Köln (A)2-1
- Jan 31 · v FSV Mainz 05 (H)1-2
- Jan 27 · at St. Pauli (A)1-1
- Jan 24 · at Heidenheim (A)3-0
- Jan 17 · v FC Bayern München (H)1-5
| Last 10 games | FC Bayern München | RB Leipzig |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-2-1 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 3.4 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-1-1 | 5-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.