Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Oct 17 · 16:30 · FC Bayern München vs RB Leipzig
Likeliest: FC Bayern München win · 81%
Likely score: 3–1
A tight one: we make it 81% for the home win. The market says 78%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Bayern München81%78%+3
OursMarket
Draw11%13%−2
OursMarket
RB Leipzig8%10%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 91% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 84% | 83% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 56% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 65% | 68% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 92% | 90% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 19% | 22% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 89% | 87% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 91% | 89% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 3.0 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Bayern München
WinWinWinDrawDraw
- Oct 13 · at Viking FK (A)3-3
- Oct 10 · at FC Augsburg (A)2-2
- Sep 18 · v 1. FC Union Berlin (H)7-0
- Sep 13 · at SV 07 Elversberg (A)2-1
- Sep 10 · v Bodø/Glimt (H)5-0
RB Leipzig
LossWinLossWinWin
- Oct 13 · v PSV Eindhoven (H)1-0
- Oct 10 · v Eintracht Frankfurt (H)6-0
- Sep 20 · at Bayer 04 Leverkusen (A)0-2
- Sep 13 · v Hamburger SV (H)5-0
- Sep 10 · at Como (A)1-4
| Last 10 games | FC Bayern München | RB Leipzig |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-3-0 | 6-0-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 3.6 | 2.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-2-0 | 4-0-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.