Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Nov 22 · 14:30 · FC Bayern München vs SC Freiburg
Likeliest: FC Bayern München win · 65%
A 15% away win. The market says 7%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Bayern München65%80%−15
OursMarket
Draw20%13%+7
OursMarket
SC Freiburg15%7%+8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 69% | −8 |
| Double chance 1X | 85% | 93% | −8 |
| Double chance X2 | 35% | 20% | +15 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 87% | −7 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 81% | 92% | −11 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Bayern München
WinWinWinWinDraw
- Nov 8 · at FC Union Berlin (A)2-2
- Nov 4 · at Paris Saint Germain (A)2-1
- Nov 1 · v Bayer 04 Leverkusen (H)3-0
- Oct 29 · at FC Köln (A)4-1
- Oct 25 · at Borussia Mönchengladbach (A)3-0
SC Freiburg
LossWinDrawWinWin
- Nov 9 · v St. Pauli (H)2-1
- Nov 6 · at Nice (A)3-1
- Nov 1 · at FC Union Berlin (A)0-0
- Oct 29 · at Fortuna Düsseldorf (A)3-1
- Oct 26 · at Bayer 04 Leverkusen (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | FC Bayern München | SC Freiburg |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 9-1-0 | 4-5-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 3.2 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.6 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 9-1-0 | 5-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.